As I had predicted in my previous post, Google has stopped censoring it’s search results, and has pulled out of China. However, the plot-twist comes in the manner which Google pulled out!

It decided to leave a lot of it’s R&D facilities, as well as mobile and a few other of it’s holdings in the maindland, and the google.cn, although shut down, is now being redirected to it’s Hong Kong servers at google.hk. Allowing Google to still serve Chinese people with uncensored results from within China.

I have to say this was an interesting move and kind of the best option left for Google, after cornering itself with the announcements of pulling out and uncensoring. This will allow it to operate within China, and abide by the unique laws in Hong Kong which allow it to stop censoring it’s results.

It’s not all Green on the other side of China, however. Google now potentially faces being blocked from within the mainland and it’s search results not being available, as well as it faces challenges in transfer speed across the mainland.

To read more about Google’s Official Announcement, check out http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/new-approach-to-china-update.html

Google reported revenues of $6.67 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2009

“Google had a strong fourth quarter, with 17% year over year revenue growth,” said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google. “Given that the global economy is still in the early days of recovery, this was an extraordinary end to the year. Our performance in 2009 underscored the strength of our management team, the resilience of our business model and the pace of innovation within our product and engineering teams, which continued unabated throughout the downturn. As we enter 2010, we remain hugely optimistic about the internet and are continuing to invest heavily in technological innovation for the benefit not only of our users and customers, but also the wider web.”

http://investor.google.com/releases/2009Q4_google_earnings.html

ON CHINA:
Eric mentioned that the China issue has been covered well in the press, so he just summarized 3 separate facts
1. The Cyber attack on google which probably eminated from China, but whose true origins are unknown. He did assure that Google has made changes to prevent attacks.

2. Discovered monitoring of human rights activists.

3. The made a decision for these and other reasons, to no longer willing to apply censorship rules in China. As of today business of China is unchanged. They continue to follow the laws, but within a short time, they will make changes there.
Eric Schmidt assured that they do wish to remain in China, that they like Chinese people and their employees there, but that they want to do business on different terms. He reassured that they are quite committed on staying there.

Google recently posted on their blog that they are considering pulling out of the China market and closing down google.cn.

The gist of the story, if you still haven’t heard of it, basically, they recently suffered cyber attacks from super high-tech hackers, on top of the recent conflicts they’ve been having with Chinese writers with Google Books, not to mention June’s 2009 incident where Google was shut down for a couple of hours due to “porn” being shown through Google results.

Anyways, now Google seems to be completely fed up and willing to walk away from their China operations, which have been rumored to generate around $300 million dollars in revenue in 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/15/world/asia/15google.html

Others argue that even though Google’s market share is so low, only around 30 some percent, the Chinese Internet market is huge and growing amazingly fast, so future profits would be too big for Google to leave behind. Google has commented that this isn’t a PR campaign, nor are they considering pulling out because of profits being low or not having enough market share,  but they claim that they are actually doing it because they no longer want to continue censoring their results.

Ultimately, in the west, Google is mistakenly seen as a hero for standing up to a country whose Government and culture we understand very little about and due to that often fear, and show a lot of disrespect towards. Which sets the way very nicely for Google in the future with their plans of “world domination.” All jokes aside, what’s interesting is the show of differences and similarities between both Chinese and American culture.

I’ve read countless of comments praising Google for not willing to follow Chinese law, or for no longer willing to cooperate with what they think to be an “evil” government. On the other side, I’ve heard from Chinese people who feel that they don’t need Google, nor any westerner who thinks himself so righteous and all-mighty to quickly criticize the Chinese way of life and the Chinese government. Keep in mind that western studies held in China have determined the government’s approval rating to be around 70-75%. Some other Chinese think they can do fine and well on their own without a foreign company trying to dictate them how they should do things.

Whether or not Google leaves remains to be seen. What’s a bit scary is the technology that was developed to pull off hacking into Google, Yahoo, and other large corporations. McCafee released a statement in their blog make sure you read up on it, because this truly marks the beginning of a new kind of war looming around if we don’t change our behavior and all start working together as a global community.

So what will it mean for China and the world if Google does leave?

Ultimately, the Chinese government won’t mind much. They will let Google go, but they will try to create new policies to make sure other Multi-national companies do not feel afraid of doing business there. This might pave way for new policies protecting technology companies, since right now China has a huge initiative to encourage technology developments, technological schools, such as the countless software colleges now recruiting foreign talents, etc,  they will make sure that investment is safe.

Furthermore, the Chinese government will probably crack down on these free-for-all proxies that have been a flock of illegal activity to show the world that they are moving forward to responsible development and show the world they would be a suitable country for leadership. Hackers will just end up using Proxies on other countries in the world where policying of the Internet isn’t as strict, and we will continue to battle cyber-espionage, and cyber-wars for years to come.

I’m pretty sure that business will go on as usual. Critics of China will continue to criticize instead of learning to understand the culture better, and China will continue it’s economic trends.

As for the gaps left behind by Google, Baidu will probably increase their share up to 70%, the rest of the people whom had been won over from Baidu to Google will find alterior means of search, which will lead the way to Bing gaining a larger share, probably around 5-10% by 2011.

I expect a larger number of Chinese will learn how to access resources outside of China, or what they call “jumping the [Great] fire-wall,” so they can get unfiltered results from Google.com, and the internet. But I don’t think that will create any instability from within China.

-Edit – 1/16/2010

Inside Story with a word from Google Inc.

Iphone in China can succeed. Here's how...

So Iphone entered China early September. And thus far, no more than a few thousand sales have been registered. Where did Apple go wrong?

The problem isn’t due to the Iphone’s popularity, as there is a huge demand for Iphone’s in China. One can see black-market Iphones all over the place, which sell for anywhere from 4000 RMB to 6000RMB (about $600 to $875 dollars).  It also isn’t the fact that there aren’t enough cell phone users. A China news agency report printed early May 2009 showed that after introduction of 3G technology, mobile users grew to a total of 670 million people. That’s almost twice the population of the U.S.. Also, it isn’t that people don’t want a new phone since they already have one, most people I met there change their phones on a frequent basis. So, shouldn’t Iphone be making a huge blast in China?

A recent Forbes article by Shaun Rein on why Apple is Failing in China outlines some interesting  points. Here are some of my observations and commentary to his article:

1. Apple entered the market assuming China is the same as the U.S.
   • Anyone who’s been in China knows how easy it is to get a pre-paid phone number and keep that as long as one wishes. Iphone is making Chinese consumers lock in to an expensive phone plan without realizing that model, although it works for the U.S., has never been popular in China. Chinese like to change phone numbers quickly and easily, although most don’t. And imiting their “options” isn’t going to win over any new customers, considering they can get a black market iphone for around the same price that doesn’t do that.
2. Apple didn’t understand consumer spending
   • Chinese usually prefer to buy cheaper plans, although they will go all out on getting a phone. They prefer texting over calls, etc. So by having them lock into expensive call plans, they are turning off customers. No pun intended.
3. Apple didn’t understand the competitive marketplace and partnered up incorrectly
   • Partnering up with a telecom (Unicom) that sells to a least wealthy consumer and has lower number registered users was a mistake.
   • Most people believe this company to have worst signal, and most people don’t want to change carriers, let alone change phone numbers.
4. Apple took too long to enter China
   • If you are not in China quickly, then the black market for your products will start becoming the main market and it’ll be harder to get back in when u decide to.

So what can Apple do? They are locked into a contract with Unicom, but have to make the best of it.

• Spend time doing more market research to understand what people want out of a phone.
• Find a way to address needs, such as: being able to keep existing phone numbers, working with Unicom to change the people’s perceptions of their service (ie providing better coverage, affordability, etc)
• Reach out to other businesses and educating them on the power of developing great apps.
• Chinese people don’t want “convenience” through the internet, as much as Americans. They are more interested in developing connections, playing games, and keeping informed, learning English, etc etc . So Apple should develop free apps that work as English dictionaries, news feeds, as well as reviews of restaurants, entertainment, and others. (those would attract the cosmopolitan crowds at least)

The lesson here is find good partners, do your due diligence, and plenty of market research, or partner up with people who understand the market.

What do businesses need to understand about the Shanghai Expo and the opportunities it will open in the market?

The next 2-5 years will see a dramatic growth in a few areas. Here’s actually my take on this.

I just attended an expo in Beijing promoting the Shanghai Expo 2010. There are two major observations and some conclusions that I can draw from the information information given there.

1) Japan, apparently known for having won the award for best pavilion several times, will probably win the award this year. Their pavilion is 80% focused on Green Technology. Their winning will be due to Japanese engineering as well as the world’s attention on Green Technology. This will draw the attention of China and the desire to step up it’s Green Tech efforts even further. Currently the stimulus plan allocated a large sum of money on this sector, except I’ve heard that it’s not easy for Foreign Companies to get direct access to that money other than with partnerships with Chinese companies. Who knows what will happen afterwards though.

2) Japan winning, as well as the world focusing so much on Green Technology will further focus China’s eyes on encouraging innovation. China, known for wanting to learn from other countries and “copy” their style, will be further convinced that in order for innovation to start coming out of China certain laws and enforcement will need to be in place. This will increase the desire for the Gov’t to protect intellectual property rights.

Out of these two results, I think we will be seeing a huge increase in Green Techs focusing on efficiency as well as alternate sources of fuel, and China trying to lead the efforts in innovation in these aspects. Based on the fact that the Gov’t here has been pushing a lot in certain “experimental” hubs to promote development of technology, I think all these things will lead to creating a “goal” for China to become the world’s innovator. How likely they are to achieve that goal is another issue altogether, but the fact that it will become a goal will reveal a lot about where China will be headed.

What does this mean to business in China? Basically, If I were to bet my future on any market in China, I’d start learning either of the following:

either a) Ecommerce and Internet, which has a correlation with intellectual property rights as well as the push from the gov’t to promote the tech sector.

or b) Green Technology.

I’m pretty confident that the pattern that China is taking will lead to these results, and my advice to all those interested in China right now is to start looking for ways in on any of these fields and get first mover’s advantage.

What do you guys think will be the effect of the Expo?